By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
At Canterbury, clients often ask us to provide our outlook for the markets over upcoming quarters. We have learned over the years, that the future, in the short or long run, is rarely the present extrapolated. The last three years alone would have proved us wrong repeatedly. In January 2020, there was great optimism f…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
For the third consecutive quarter, both stocks and bonds declined in tandem. The S&P 500 fell 5.3%, the 10-Year Treasury rose 85 basis points, and 2-Year Treasury yields rose 130 bp, resulting in the most inverted yield curve in several decades. The U.S. Dollar appreciated for the fifth straight quarter, increasing 7%.…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
As companies and consumers emerged from long COVID-related social shutdowns in early 2022, the resulting increase in demand for goods and services was met with supply disruptions. These disruptions were prolonged further by lockdowns in China and the Russia-Ukraine war. Also, continued price increases and higher CPI re…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
The first three months of 2022 brought on a variety of external issues that directly or indirectly affected individuals in almost every country: the political and economic tragedies and uncertainties surrounding the Russian-Ukrainian war, possible risks associated with additional variants of the COVID-19 virus, disrupt…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
After almost two years since the start of the pandemic, the world is still being impacted by COVID-19. A new variant of the virus has emerged, but the effect of the pandemic is slowly beginning to subside. Most people have developed some level of immunity to the virus, either through inoculation or infection. The globa…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
A robust macroeconomic backdrop, the decline in Delta variant cases, and a dovish Fed have supported the rally of global equity and risk assets. U.S. GDP grew by 12.2% for the year ending June 30. The very large stimulus plan that has been in place over the last 19 months has achieved its goal of helping the Federal Re…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
The first half of 2021 seems to have gone fairly quickly with vaccinations, a move toward normal life, and good market returns facilitating a smooth transition in the direction of post-pandemic normality. Compared to a year ago, the economic pendulum has swung from dire concerns about the pandemic to more optimism towa…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
As the first quarter of 2021 progressed, governments across countries made a concerted effort to move toward some semblance of normality. A decline in new COVID cases, vaccine availability, and the continued commitment by central governments to maintain accommodative policies have all contributed to improved economic a…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
The year 2020 will be remembered as a year marked by crisis as well as the heroic responses that crossed national and regional boundaries. While the year began with steady growth, in March, the COVID-19 pandemic quickly shaped into a global crisis. This forced populations to engage in some form of isolation, distancing…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
With less than three months left in 2020, this year has proven to be most unusual. COVID-19 related restrictions truly “hit home” globally, forcing individuals worldwide to readjust their physical, psychological, and social lifestyle for most of this year. This will likely continue for some portion of 2021. The rapid a…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
The global economic contraction triggered by the COVID-19 virus has occurred at a greater speed, scale, and breadth than any other recession since World War II. In the 1970s, we had the recession driven by supply-driven oil-price shocks caused by production cuts. In the early 2000s, we had monetary tightening in respon…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
First quarter investment results were defined by markets’ reactions to the global virus-fighting lockdowns and closures of the developed world, resulting in a decline in the U.S. equity markets (Russell 3000 Index) of -20.9%, the non-U.S. equity markets (MSCI ACWI-ex U.S. Index) of -23.4%, U.S. high yield bond markets …
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
As most of our clients have long investment horizons, we focus more on longer-term returns. Previously, a 10- year horizon seemed to be a reasonable period for a full market cycle, but as we stand at the cusp of the 2020s, we look back at a rather unusual decade.
We reminisce positively at the strong performance of …
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
As one of the longest economic expansions in U.S. history persists, the news of the third quarter of 2019 focused on the financial impact of continuing trade wars, a potential global slowdown, geopolitical unrest, an inverted yield curve, central bank monetary policies, currency depreciation, market volatility, risk of…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
During the last decade, the “lower rates for a long period” scenario has arrived with mixed blessings for the global economy. Capital has steadily flown into riskier assets, but despite aggressive monetary policies, economic growth has not maintained pace with the appreciation of financial assets. Despite negative yiel…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
Risk assets rose sharply in the first quarter of 2019, in spite of slowing economic growth. A more accommodative monetary stance by central banks helped to improve investor sentiment, which was affected in 2018 by trade frictions and moves by the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy. The political and economic …
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
The spike in market volatility and dramatic reversals in the last few months of 2018 was an experience that investors had not had for a number of years. A series of negotiations during the summer between OPEC members, the U.S., Russia, and other oil-producing countries resulted in production increases. As the year came…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
For most of 2018, news of trade wars and tariffs dominated headlines. Concern about the impact that the swelling number of tariffs can have on the price of U.S. exports and imports, and the further implications for global trade, has been one reason for higher volatility in equity markets. At the same time, however, the…
By Poorvi Parekh, CFA
The second quarter was fairly volatile for the global financial markets. Concerns over tighter financial conditions, renewed dollar strength, and moderated global growth weighed on equity and fixed income markets. Our assessment is that the case for a structural global economic recovery is still in place. Central banks…
